it's been a few years since we had a decent cold snap, so we were due. the refuge i usually go to is about 10 minutes from where i work. there are 3 others fairly close by. it doesn't look too different from yours by the looks of the pics. lots of marsh areas and lakes.
nws has been wrong for us all winter so far. oddly enough, accuweather has been right on every storm. this is the paid accuweather service, not their open access side.