Probably The Best Time to Buy Old Autofocus Lenses?

I just bought a Nikon AF 180mm f/2.8 from Japan for only $190 (AUD equivalent, same below). I owned a same lens fifteen years ago, and if I remember correctly, I paid over $600 for that one.

I also checked the price of a used Minolta AF 35mm f/2. Every Minolta fan knows it was always far more expensive than its counterparts from Nikon, since neither Minolta nor Sony ever made an affordable full-frame 35mm alternative for the Alpha mount. Now under $260, less than half of its peak price, it's probably the first time in human history that it's cheaper than a used Nikon AF 35mm f/2.

As mirrorless cameras continue to dominate the market, I’ve realized this is probably the best time to pick up those old screw-driven AF lenses. They either lose autofocus completely or rely on ridiculously expensive adapters to function. For example, an adapter that enables autofocus on the Nikon AF 180mm f/2.8 for a Nikon mirrorless body can cost more than $550, more than double the lens itself. It’s reasonable to assume that more and more people are letting go of these classic AF lenses, causing prices to drop dramatically.

The even older manual lenses aren’t really affected, since they’re manual focus anyway. They lose nothing when paired with a mirrorless camera.

Guess you will agree with this?
 
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You are correct, for now.

I have been adding to some of my older lens mount collection for a while because the prices have fallen. I like to have a film camera, and a digital in the same mount (if possible) so this has been great for building out “systems.”

I have a Minolta a7 35mm, and a Minolta 7D digital - both A-Mount. Ten years ago a nice “Beercan” 70-210F4 was a couple hundred bucks or more - now they are $50 or less.

I recently bought a Nikon F4S, and a Nikon D800 full frame digital - and it has been a lot of fun building out a lens collection as the older autofocus F-Mount Nikon lenses are cheap. The F4S and the D800 both can use the same autofocus lenses. I bought a like new 20-35mmF2.8 for a couple hundred bucks (new these were ~1500, and several years ago they were north of ~$600) and it also works great adapted to my Lumix. Same for the Nikon 80-400F4.5, I think this is my current favorite F-Mount lens. I paid a little over $400, which is half the price they used to be - and new it was a ~$2000 dollar lens.

I will say though, it may be the best time to buy “now” as the amount of hype has been building over the last year or so among the social media photographers when it comes to older DSLRs and lenses. I see more and more of it on my YouTubve feed. Creators/photographers like Lucy Lumen and a few others. It would seem like most things, photography trends are rather cyclic.
 
Guess you will agree with this?
Absolutely!

I just purchased a Nikon D700 as well as a D810. Lenses are quite reasonable. My question is how important will the 810 become in my shooting. I doubt that I'll add any long glass for shooting birds as my OM-1 and 300/4 Pro have that covered.

At the moment the lens that I have on the 810 is an AF 28-200 and I might look for a 28-300. I also have a 35/2 which is manual and was used to take the most recent crape myrtle leaves shot posted as post # 9 in this thread: https://realphotographersforum.com/threads/crape-myrtle-leaves.26078/#post-210957
 
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